Rates & Macro Sensitivity Lab

Monitor Treasury curve shifts, real rates, EM credit spreads, regime analogs, and rate-to-spread shock translation from FRED macro data.

Macro setup

FRED rates, curve, real yield, and EM credit spread sensitivity lab.

FRED
Help: rates and spread concepts
Basis points
One basis point is 0.01 percentage points. A move from 4.00% to 5.00% is +100 bps.Why it matters: rate and spread moves are usually discussed in bps, not raw percent.
OAS spreads
Option-adjusted spread is the extra yield over Treasuries demanded for credit risk. Higher OAS usually means tighter financing conditions and weaker credit risk appetite.
Shock translation
The shock matrix uses historical daily co-movement. It helps translate a rate shock into an estimated spread move, but it is not a causal forecast.
UST 10Y
READY
N/A
Percentile N/A
10Y-2Y slope
CURVE
N/A
Curve inversion / steepening monitor
BAA spread
Moody's / BBB eq.
N/A
Percentile N/A
Macro regime
CLOSEST ANALOG
N/A
Distance N/A
Stress translation
SHOCK
N/A
Run macro lab

Treasury curve monitor

Observed constant-maturity curve versus 1Y and 5Y historical snapshots.

Run macro lab to populate Treasury curve snapshots.

Rates and credit tape

Daily FRED levels with one-decimal chart tooltips.

Run macro lab to populate rate and spread history.

Valuation matrix

Current macro level versus its own history using z-score and percentile.

Help: Moody's BAA versus S&P/Fitch
Broad category
Moody's Baa corresponds to the BBB category on S&P and Fitch scales. It is the lowest broad investment-grade credit tier.
Notch equivalence
Baa1 = BBB+, Baa2 = BBB, and Baa3 = BBB-. Below Baa3/BBB- the comparable category moves into Ba/BB high yield.

Run macro lab to populate valuation diagnostics.

Shock propagation

Estimated spread move from the configured rate shock.

Run macro lab to populate shock propagation.

Positive bps means historical spread widening for the configured shock; negative means historical tightening.

Correlation

Daily changes. Green +1, red -1.

Run macro lab to populate correlations.

Sensitivity readout

Daily-change OLS beta; weak R2 rows should be treated as low-confidence.

Run macro lab to populate sensitivities.

Spread ladder

Relative EM credit compensation across LatAm and rating buckets.

Run macro lab to populate spread ladder.

Regime map

Current state compared with prior rate and credit regimes.

Run macro lab to populate regime analysis.

Macro readout

No run

Run macro lab to inspect rates, curve shape, EM credit spreads, sensitivity, and regime context.