Seasonality & Yearly Path Lab

Compare the current calendar-year trajectory against historical paths and estimate the remaining-year volatility cone.

Seasonality setup

Single-asset calendar-year return paths and current-year context.

SPY

Calendar lens

YTD

Aligns each year to the same synthetic calendar, highlights the current path, and projects a remaining-year cone from realized drift and volatility.

Current YTD
READY
N/A
Run a ticker to compare paths
Best year
HISTORY
N/A
Highest calendar-year finish
Median year
HISTORY
N/A
Middle historical finish
Worst year
HISTORY
N/A
Lowest calendar-year finish
Cone range
YEAR END
N/A
Approximate 95% model band

Yearly return paths

Calendar-year cumulative returns rebased to each year's first observation.

Run seasonality to compare the current path against history.

SPY

Volatility cone

Expected remaining-year path with one- and two-standard-deviation bands.

Run seasonality to estimate the remaining-year cone.

Seasonality readout

SPY

Run a ticker to map its current calendar-year path.